
For this article, I wanted to condense some of the things I’ve learned about the cryptocurrency market over the last 10 years.
Crypto moves in cycles that feel like you’re listening to the same album, but every time you replay it, something’s changed. The melody’s similar, but the tempo’s changed, or the lead guitarist is now stoned, and the riffs are a lot slower than you remember them.
In other words, it’s not a circle, it’s a spiral. The crypto market cycle has a rhythm of its own, but that rhythm is affected by external geopolitical factors. It’s never the same, but it’s close enough that we can see the patterns forming.
You can time the market (but you need time in the market)
Time in the market gives you a deeper understanding of the crypto market cycles. It enables you to spot the subtle differences in each cycle: the difference in sentiment, velocity adoption, and general cadence of that particular bull market cycle.
Most people will tell you that time in the market beats timing the market. While this is generally good advice, I believe that these two are not mutually exclusive.
Time in the market and timing the market are in a symbiotic relationship, just like the mycorrhiza and lichen. You can’t be timing the market unless you have time in the market. Well, you can try, but you will probably fail.
Time in the market gives you a deeper understanding of the market dynamics, and a much richer dataset and knowledge pool to tap into compared to simply checking the historical charts. But if your goal is to time the market, understanding its moves is key.
So, to everyone saying that time in the market beats timing the market, I say — stop saying that, it doesn’t make sense. You can’t time the market unless you understand its movements, and how else can you do that if you’re not there to see it happen?
If you were there where Bitcoin was $69000 and you see it drop to $3000, are you going to patiently DCA? Or will to go drop a lump sum then and there?
There is a time to wait, a time to DCA, and a time to go full degen. Learn to identify these.
Fundamentals don’t matter, price action does
The graveyard is packed with projects that had bulletproof fundamentals.
Take EOS, it raised $4 billion in 2018 to build a fast, scalable blockchain. Today, it’s a ghost town. Or Nano, which offered feeless, instant transactions, yet remains largely forgotten.
The hard truth is that the market doesn’t care about fundamentals. The markets mostly care about price action. Can this affect make me money faster than other assets? The projects with strong fundamentals rely on these fundamentals and use them as a selling point, or as an indicator that indeed, this asset will generate more money for you compared to other assets.
But not many people care about the underlying technology or what that technology can do for them, because ultimately the blockchain is yet to present us with a use-case that consumers can easily understand and get behind. Something unique that current technologies simply don’t offer.
Until that happens, it’s all a speculative race. Some people put their money on horses with pedigree, while others pick slightly more
Memecoin hunting doesn’t work, leverage instead
Much like a prostitute that doesn’t let you finish, memecoin hunting leaves you frustrated and light of pocket.
Here’s how the memecoin game works: A developer creates a coin with a dog or frog logo, premines 30% of the supply, and slides into influencers’ DMs offering free tokens for promotion. By the time you see 50 tweets screaming 100x GEM and you shouldn’t fade this token, the insiders have already bought. You’re the exit liquidity.
Over 99% of all memecoins are scams and rug pulls. Hands have been shaken and deals have been made long before the contract address drops.
Ah, but you’re no ordinary degen, no, you’re not like all the other normies that hunt formemecoins on Twitter. You’re going straight to the source, baby — the launchpad on DexStreet on Jupiter.
Sure, you might be early there, but you step right into the second problem — 99% of all memetokens are scams and rugpulls. Congrats on going out of your way to be scammed.
There’s nothing wrong with a bit of gambling if you’re doing it responsibly. But understand that inside a literal Casino, the slot machine gives you 49/51% odds of winning. Your odds are way lower than 1% when it comes to memecoin hunting.
So, if you feel freaky and want to gamble a bit, have you considered margin trading your favourite assets? You’re better off trading a leveraged position on Bitcoin, Solana or Ethereum and at least have a chance that the market might go your way, rather than straight up throwing your money away on memecoins.
If you’re into algorithmic trading and looking for a no-code solution, check out crypto trading bot platform Aesir. Get 20% OFF with code AESIRPOT20.
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